Is a DFM Well Suited for Forecasting Regional House Price Inflation?

This paper uses the Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) framework, which accommodates a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting regional house price inflation. As a case study, we use data on house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa. The DFM used in this study contains 282 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the Mean Absolute Errors of one- to four-quarters-ahead out of sample forecasts over the period of 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that, in majority of the cases, the DFM outperforms the VARs, both classical and Bayesian, with the latter incorporating both spatial and non-spatial models. Our results, thus, indicate the blessing of dimensionality.Dynamic Factor Model, VAR, BVAR, Forecast Accuracy

Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African Housing Market?

This paper develops large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, based on 268 quarterly series, for forecasting annualized real house price growth rates for large-, medium and small-middle-segment housing for the South African economy. Given the in-sample period of 1980:01 to 2000:04, the large-scale BVARs, estimated under alternative hyperparameter values specifying the priors, are used to forecast real house price growth rates over a 24-quarter out-of-sample horizon of 2001:01 to 2006:04. The forecast performance of the large-scale BVARs are then compared with classical and Bayesian versions of univariate and multivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, merely comprising of the real growth rates of the large-, medium and small-middle-segment houses, and a large-scale Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), which comprises of the same 268 variables included in the large-scale BVARs. Based on the one- to four-quarters ahead Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) over the out-of-sample horizon, we find the large-scale BVARs to not only outperform all the other alternative models, but to also predict the recent downturn in the real house price growth rates for the three categories of the middle-segment-housing over the period of 2003:01 to 2008:02.Dynamic Factor Model, BVAR, Forecast Accuracy

Ischemic Stroke in Dengue Fever: Unusual Complication of a Common Disease

Dengue fever is an arboviral infection, which is highly prevalent in tropical and subtropical climates. It is frequently associated with neurological complications but its association with ischemic stroke is ill defined. We present a case of an apparently healthy young male admitted with dengue fever complicated by ischemic infarct in corpus callosum. Our patient was managed conservatively, improved clinically and discharged in satisfactory condition

Ischemic Stroke in Dengue Fever: Unusual Complication of a Common Disease

Dengue fever is an arboviral infection, which is highly prevalent in tropical and subtropical climates. It is frequently associated with neurological complications but its association with ischemic stroke is ill defined. We present a case of an apparently healthy young male admitted with dengue fever complicated by ischemic infarct in corpus callosum. Our patient was managed conservatively, improved clinically and discharged in satisfactory condition

EXTH-08. REPLACEMENT OF MICROGLIA BY BRAIN-ENGRAFTED MACROPHAGES PREVENTS MEMORY DEFICITS AFTER THERAPEUTIC WHOLE-BRAIN IRRADIATION

Abstract Microglia have a distinct origin compared to blood circulating myeloid cells. Under normal physiological conditions, microglia are maintained by self-renewal, independent of hematopoietic progenitors. Following genetic or pharmacologic depletion, newborn microglia derive from the local residual pool and quickly repopulate the entire brain. The depletion of brain resident microglia during therapeutic whole-brain irradiation fully prevents irradiation-induced synaptic loss and recognition memory deficits but the mechanisms driving these protective effects are unknown. Here, we demonstrate that after CSF-1R inhibitor-mediated microglia depletion and therapeutic whole-brain irradiation, circulating monocytes engraft into the brain and replace the microglia pool. These monocyte-derived brain-engrafted macrophages have reduced phagocytic activity compared to microglia from irradiated brains, but similar to locally repopulated microglia without brain irradiation. Transcriptome comparisons reveal that brain-engrafted macrophages have both monocyte and embryonic microglia signatures. These results suggest that monocyte-derived brain-engrafted macrophages represent a novel therapeutic avenue for the treatment of brain radiotherapy-induced cognitive deficits

SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF BEPOTASTINE BESILATE AND BENZALKONIUM CHLORIDE IN OPHTHALMIC FORMULATION BY RP-HPLC METHOD

Objective: Development and validation of stability indicating RP-HPLC method for the simultaneous determination of bepotastine besilate (Bepo B) and benzalkonium chloride (BKC) in an ophthalmic dosage form.Methods: A chromatographic separation of the drug, as well as a preservative, was achieved using Shimadzu HPLC 1100 series consisted of binary pump LC-10 ADvp, Rheodyne universal injector 7725i and Shimadzu SPD-10 UV–Visible detector. The chromatographic separations were performed using Analytical® Hyperchrome ODS C18, 5 μm, 250 mm X 4.6 mm i.d. column with isocratic mobile phase Acetonitrile: phosphate buffer (60:40) pH 5.5. The drug and a preservative were monitored at an ambient temperature and detection wavelength of 210 nm with a flow rate of 1 ml/min and an injection volume of 20 µl.Results: The mean % recovery at the 80, 100 and 120% level for Bepotastine and benzalkonium chloride was found to be 100.09 and 100.81% respectively and % RSD was found to be 0.21 and 0.85% respectively, which meets the established acceptance criteria. Forced degradation of bepotastine besilate was carried under alkaline, acidic, neutral, oxidative, humidity, thermal and photodegradation conditions and it was analyzed by proposed method. The drug degrades to some extent in all forced degradation condition.Conclusion: The developed method was validated as per ICH guidelines using validation parameters such as accuracy, precision, linearity and range, robustness, ruggedness, LOD, LOQ, specificity, and system suitability testing. The proposed method can be used for routine analysis stability testing and assay of bepotastine besilate ophthalmic solution in quality control laboratories.Keywords: Bepotastine besilate (Bepo B), Benzalkonium chloride (BKC

Purification and characterization of a Bacillus subtilis keratinase and its prospective application in feed industry

We have isolated a Bacillus subtilis strain (RSE163) from soil and explored for keratinase production. Keratinase was purified using chromatographic methods (Sephadex G-75 and Q Sepharose) resulting in 8.42-fold purification with 3303 U/mg specific activity.The purified enzyme displayed 3 bands in close proximity between 20 to 22 kDa in SDS-PAGE which were apparent to the zone of hydrolysis in gelatin zymogram. Enzyme was stable over a wide pH (7.0-10.0) and temperature (30 °C to 70 °C) range with optimum activity at pH 9.0 and 60 °C. Keratinase activity was stimulated in presence of Mn2+, β-mercaptoethanol and surfactants (Triton-X and Tween-80) and inhibited by Fe3+, Cd2+, K+, PMSF (phenyl methane sulfonyl fluoride) and other chelating and reducing agents. The enzyme efficiently hydrolyzed a variety of complex protein substrates (chicken feather, keratin hydrolyzate and casein) and enzyme kinetics parameters were determined using Lineweaver Burk plot (Km = 6.6 mg/ml, Vmax = 5 U/ml/min). Hydrolyzed feather keratin obtained through fermentation with B. subtilis RSE163 has been explored for its cytotoxicity using liver cell line (HepG2). No cytotoxicity has been determined up to 0.015% concentration of hydrolyzed product indicating its potential applicability as feed supplement